Deloitte2005年给AIPC做的落基山脉能源项目评估分析案
- 1. U.S. Energy & The Role of Rocky Mountain Natural Gas: Clean Domestic Energy For a Growing America(2005)
- 2. There is no economy, be it new, old or even futuristic, that would exist without reliable, accessible and affordable energyBasic Energy Facts
- 3. There is no economy, be it new, old or even futuristic, that would exist without reliable, accessible and affordable energyBasic Energy FactsOver the past 25 years U.S. demand for energy has increased by 35% while our supply has only increased by 17%
- 4. There is no economy, be it new, old or even futuristic, that would exist without reliable, accessible and affordable energyBasic Energy FactsWe import 14% of the gas and 53% of the oil we useOver the past 25 years U.S. demand for energy has increased by 35% while our supply has only increased by 17%
- 5. Polls demonstrate that the American public:Source: COGA Flowline, Vol. 17, #3Basic Energy Facts 1. Takes energy for granted
- 6. Polls demonstrate that the American public:Source: COGA Flowline, Vol. 17, #3Basic Energy Facts 1. Takes energy for granted 2. Neither understands nor appreciates how cheap our energy is in constant dollars or in comparison to other consumer nations
- 7. Polls demonstrate that the American public:Source: COGA Flowline, Vol. 17, #3Basic Energy Facts 1. Takes energy for granted 2. Neither understands nor appreciates how cheap our energy is in constant dollars or in comparison to other consumer nations3. Seems to believe the mistaken notion that energy production necessarily entails unacceptable environmental impact
- 8. In Colorado about 2,000 drilling permits are issued annually compared to about 50,000 housing permitsSource: COGA Flowline, Vol. 17, #3Basic Energy Facts
- 9. OIL
- 10. Total U.S. Energy Consumption by Primary Energy Source 2001Source: EIAPetroleum 39.4%Natural Gas 22.8%Coal 23.1%Other - 3.9%Hydro - 2.5%Nuclear - 8.4%
- 11. World Petroleum Demand25.9%76.0 MMbodSource: EIA
- 12. In the last 5 years the world consumed 27 billion barrels/year, but the industry discovered only 3 billion barrels/year Therefore: used 135 billion barrels of oil while discovering 15 billion barrels of oilSource: USGSBasic Energy Facts
- 13. World Top Oil Producing Countries in 2001 U.S. 9.0 MMbo/d Russia 8.8 MMbo/d Saudi Arabia 8.0 MMbo/d North Sea (UK, Norway, Denmark) 6.3 MMbo/d Iran 3.7 MMbo/d Mexico 3.6 MMbo/d China 3.3 MMbo/d Venezuela 2.9 MMbo/d Canada 2.8 MMbo/d Iraq 2.4 MMbo/dSource: EIA
- 14. U.S. Petroleum Products Production vs. U.S. Petroleum DemandProduction -25%Demand +24%Source: EIA
- 15. U.S. Crude Oil Production & Crude Oil ImportsSource: EIA051015202519731976197919821985198819911994199720002001Quadrillion BtuOil ProductionOil Imports
- 16. Top Suppliers of Crude Oil to U.S. in 2001 Saudi Arabia 1,611 Mbo/d Mexico 1,394 Mbo/d Canada 1,356 Mbo/d Venezuela 1,291 Mbo/d Nigeria 842 Mbo/d Iraq 795 Mbo/dSource: EIA
- 17. NATURAL GAS
- 18. Total U.S. Energy Consumption by Primary Energy Source 2001Source: EIAPetroleum 39.4%Natural Gas 22.8%Coal 23.1%Other - 3.9%Hydro - 2.5%Nuclear - 8.4%
- 19. U.S. Natural Gas Consumption in 2001 22.0 TcfSource: Groppe, Long & LittellResidential 22%Commercial 15%Industrial 26%Electric Utilities 26%Chemicals and Materials 3%Other 9%
- 20. U.S. Natural Gas Consumption vs. Dry ProductionSource: EIA01020304050607019731977198119851989199319972001BcfdConsumptionProduction
- 21. U.S. Shortfall in Production vs. ConsumptionSource: EIAIn 2001 U.S. consumption was 6 Bcfd greater than U.S. production!
- 22. Projected Natural Gas DemandSource: EIATcf per year
- 23. U.S. manufacturing is based on affordable and reliable supplies of natural gas. At these prices, it is unlikely the U.S. will attract new manufacturing capital. Today’s gas prices are forcing manufacturers to consider production overseas.Source: Industrial Energy Consumers of America
- 24. ELECTRICITY
- 25. U.S. highway fuel market totals 11-12 MMbopd making it the single largest petroleum market in the world However the energy content creating Kilowatts in the U.S. is almost twice as large as the highway fuel market!Electricity – Basic Energy Facts
- 26. Basic Energy FactsIn 2001 nearly 42% of the energy consumed in the U.S. was used to generate electricity.Source: Groppe, Long & Littell
- 27. U.S. Electricity Supply by Source in 2001Source: EIANatural Gas16.5%Coal51.5%Other Gaseous Fuels - 0.5% Geothermal, Solar, Wind - 2.1% Petroleum - 3.4% Hydro - 5.8%Nuclear20.3%
- 28. From end of WWII to start of 2000 residential and commercial electrical use increased 51 out of 53 years Yet no significant new power plants were built between 1990 and 2000
- 29. Basic Energy FactsIn 2000, PC’s and electronics consumed 13% of our nation’s energy supply. By 2020, these uses are expected to consume 25% of the nation’s energy supply. 40% of the country’s electricity is used to power air conditioners.
- 30. U.S. Electricity Net GenerationSource: Groppe, Long & Littell012341975198019851990199520002001Billion Kilowatt Hours1.6% CAGR
- 31. U.S. Electricity Supply by Source in 2001Source: EIANatural Gas16.5%Nuclear20.3%Coal51.5%Other Gaseous Fuels - 0.5% Geothermal, Solar, Wind - 2.1% Petroleum - 3.4% Hydro – 5.8%
- 32. U.S. Hydroelectric Power ProductionSource: EIA 05101520251973197619791982198519881991199419972000Quadrillion Btu2001
- 33. Over the past 25 years U.S. demand for energy has increased by 35% while our supply has only increased by 17%Basic Energy Facts
- 34. Basic Energy FactsOil, gas and hydro production are flat to down – so what has increased energy supply?Over the past 25 years U.S. demand for energy has increased by 35% while our supply has only increased by 17%
- 35. U.S. Electricity Supply by Source in 2001Source: EIANatural Gas16.5%Nuclear20.3%Coal51.5%Other Gaseous Fuels - 0.5% Geothermal, Solar, Wind - 2.1% Petroleum - 3.4% Hydro - 5.8%
- 36. U.S. Nuclear Electric Power Production25051015201973197619791982198519881991199419972000Quadrillion BtuThree Mile Island2001Source: EIA
- 37. U.S. Electricity Supply by Source in 2001Source: EIANatural Gas16.5%Nuclear20.3%Coal51.5%Other Gaseous Fuels - 0.5% Geothermal, Solar, Wind - 2.1% Petroleum - 3.4% Hydro - 5.8%
- 38. U.S. Electric Power Production from CoalSource: EIACoal05101520251973197619791982198519881991199419972000Quadrillion Btu2001
- 39. Can’t store electricity like you can oil and gas – so excess capacity is essential! The nation is now adding gas fired power plants at an unprecedented rateElectricity – Basic Energy Facts
- 40. Easier to permit More cost efficient Take years less to construct Distributed location Clean (50% of coal and oil power plant emissions)Why Gas Fired Power Plants?
- 41. Source: EPA & AGAAir Pollution Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)
- 42. Source: EPA & AGAAir Pollution Emissions of Sulpher Dioxide (SOx)
- 43. Source: EPA & AGAAir Pollution Emissions of Particulate Matter
- 44. Source: EPA & AGAAir Pollution Emissions of Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
- 45. Rockies represent the single largest untapped onshore natural gas basin in the U.S.Source: National Petroleum CouncilRockies 41%Gulf Coast 23%Mid-Continent 36%Estimated Proven and Potential Gas Reserves in the U.S. (1,135 Tcf)Why the Rockies?
- 46. Source: AAPG Memoir 67, p. 286.Basin Center Gas (BCG)
- 47. Rocky Mountain BCGHuge and largely untapped “unconventional” natural gas resource Abnormally pressured gas accumulations below normally pressured water system Compartmentalized non-continuous gas columns
- 48. Usually low perm reservoirs but high perm areas do exist (sweetspots) Complex poorly understood system which represents tremendous opportunityRocky Mountain BCG
- 49. These accumulations have defied exploitation by conventional techniques A deep basin high potential “frontier” exists in mature provinceRocky Mountain BCG
- 50. Unconventional resource 1.4 TCFG produced annually >7% of U.S. gas production Over 90% of CBM production came from Rockies in 2000Coal Bed Methane
- 51. Coal Bed Methane39.7 TCFG most likely recoverable from Rocky Mountain region CBM potential of entire Rockies being reevaluated after success in Powder River, Uinta, Raton & Piceance Basins
- 52. Three of the four largest (?) U.S. onshore gas discoveries in last 25 years are in the Rockies Producing San Juan Basin CBM (1986) 2,000 MMcfd Powder River Basin CBM (1991) 930 MMcfd Barnett Shale (1981) 700 MMcfd Jonah – BCG (1995) 650 MMcfd
- 53. U.S. Daily Gas Production 1972 - 1999Source: 2000 Potential Gas Committee Report-24%-36%518%010203040Gulf CoastMid- ContinentRockiesPacificN. CentralBcfd-24%-36%518%-21%700%19721999U.S. Gas Supply: Why the Rockies?
- 54. Discount to NYMEXF=’03 (Actual Jan-Feb, Futures Mar-Dec), ’04 & ’05 Futures 2-7-03$ / MMbtuCIG Basis1.150.600.310.250.520.781.251.771.080.84
- 55. (本页无文本内容)
- 56. Volatile prices Excessive regulations Inefficient permitting procedures Lack of land and lease accessibilityWhat is holding us back from growing our gas production?
- 57. Barriers to Meeting the Nation’s Demand for Natural Gas21 Tcf137 Tcf31 Tcf24 TcfSource: National Petroleum CouncilU.S. Lower-48 Natural Gas Reserves Subject to Access Restrictions
- 58. Lack of infrastructure Lack of impactful new technology (“silver bullets”) Lack of prospects?What is holding us back from growing our gas production?
- 59. Most of our gas supply and drilling activity in last 10 years has come from extremely successful exploitation efforts The problem is that this is a finite game
- 60. 05,00010,00015,00020,0001972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 # of Wells CompletedOilGasDry1972 7,5511981 17,5001986 7,1562000 2,076Source: APIHistory of U.S. Exploration Activity
- 61. Price uncertainty “Tired” mature basins Lack of creative new ideas – where have all the prospectors gone?Why are exploration efforts so anemic?
- 62. Quarterly financial “street” expectations Perception that domestic projects can’t compete with global opportunitiesWhy are exploration efforts so anemic?
- 63. Lack of consistent corporate commitment or fortitudeWhy are exploration efforts so anemic?
- 64. We must explore for the good of our country and the survival of our industry
- 65. WANTED: A New Supply of “Silver Bullets”
- 66. IP / EUR Logs! Pipe set “dry holes” are tremendous waste of capital Cost Effective (Cheap) Onshore 3D Seismic Acquisition! Need “offshore-like” coverage in all of our basinsNeeded: New “Silver Bullets”
- 67. BOP’s That Can Drill With Air to Greater Than 5,000# Efficient air drilling in horizontal laterals “Canada-Like” Regulations Such That ALL Data Becomes Public Allowing Much More Efficient Data Farming More Subsurface Hole with Less Surface ImpactNeeded: New “Silver Bullets”
- 68. Independents drill 85% of domestic oil and natural gas wells and produce approximately 75% of domestic natural gas – This is not BIG OIL! – Source: Independent Petroleum Association of America
- 69. Independents Are the Nation’s “Energy Farmers” Price “takers,” not price “makers.” Produce something that everyone needs. Heavily dependent on the weather.
- 70. Where are the majors? Majors need to step up and play a significant role in our nation’s gas supply growth efforts
- 71. The ability to produce clean burning domestic natural gas in adequate supply is critical to our nation’s economy and self-sufficiencySource: COCA Flowline, Vol. 17, #3Conclusions:
- 72. The general public is clueless! Get informed and tell others of the crucial role the natural gas industry plays in America’s future Basic Energy Fact
- 73. Project Manager Jim Lightner, Tom Brown February 13, 2005
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