13. 价值衡量需要有一整套指数EVA is a registered trademark of the Stern Stewart Company…最可靠的衡量指数:股东回报率Total Shareholder Return (TSR)
投资资本的现金流回报Cash flow return on gross invested capital (CFROI)
加权平均的资本成本Weighted-Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
可持续的资产增长率Sustainable Asset Growth Rate
未来现金流量的净现值Net present value of future cash flows (NPV or DCF)是否在创造价值?
表现如何?
什么是最低投资回报?
如何衡量增长?
公司的价值?需要衡量的对象....
14. 股东回报率TSR衡量上市公司的价值增长为什么 TSR 是衡量价值
增长的最好指标股东回报率TSR 定义TSR = (市场差价 + 分红)/价格
= (2+1)/10 = 30%
12110股价
t = 0分红股价
t = n反映了公司最终拥有者的回报率
用作各投资机构的积分卡
不受会计操作的影响
全面体现获利率和和增长率
是高层管理者持股分配的基础
16. 投资资本的现金流回报CFROI 全面衡量公司业绩当上市公司拥有以下特征时,较为适合使用CFROI:
长年限的固定资产 (平均超过 15 年)
具有大量固定资产
固定资产非常陈旧或非常新
具有大型投资模板和行为益处CFROI 定义跨国家,跨行业,跨时间比较
不受资产的年限和组合的影响
全面
使内部决策和外部资本市场的表现挂钩
提供投资项目的回顾审计
与资本成本可直接比较资产年限营运资本总现金流动量总投资额CFROI = IRR on a business
17. CFROI计算结果(1999年)5424
0
644
6,068
22,292
10,411
9,369
48,140564
2163
1214
138
3891Net Income
Depreciation
Interest Expense
Minority Interest
Gross Cash FlowNet Working Capital
+Land
+Investments
= Non Depreciating Assets
Net Fixed Assets
Accum. Depr.*
Inflation Adjustment*
Gross Investment资产年限 = 20营运资本
+ 土地Sinopec
1999 ($ millions)Source: DC Analysis, Company financial statementsCFROI = IRR = 6.1%48,1404,0796,068*DC EstimatesPeers?
Cost of Capital?
Plan CFROI?IRR:内部收益率
18. 5927
0
739
6,666
22,897
10,599
9,539
49,7011926*
2322*
814*
110*
5172*Net Income
Depreciation
Interest Expense
Minority Interest
Gross Cash FlowNet Working Capital
+Land
+Investments
= Non Depreciating Assets
Net Fixed Assets
Accum. Depr.*
Inflation Adjustment*
Gross Investment资产年限 = 20营运资本
+ 土地Sinopec
2000 ($ millions)Source: DC Analysis, Company financial statementsCFROI = IRR = 8.6%49,7015,1726,666*DC EstimatesPeers?
Cost of Capital?
Plan CFROI?CFROI计算结果(2000年)IRR:内部收益率
19. Positive
Spread
BusinessNeutral
Spread
BusinessNegative
Spread
BusinessDiscount Rate: WACCIncrease CFROI
Hold CFROI
Grow Assets
Erode CFROI
Grow FasterIncrease CFROI
Then GrowIncrease CFROI
Reduce Reinvestment
Divest or LiquidateCFROI
%Strategies for Value Creation任何业务都可创造价值 – 但需要按不同的情况设定战略Note: this applies to business units as well as corporations overall
21. 评估使用表现指标和贴现现金流量Gross
InvestmentSustainable
GrowthPV Cash Flow Existing Assets
PV Cash Flow Future Investment
Total Economic Value
- Market Value of Debt1)
Equity Value34236
-1026
33210
-12687
20523
1) ST & LT, minority interest2.2%$49,701 m8.2%10%$ mil$29.83/shareFade RateDiscount
Rate7.0%CFROISinopec, Fiscal 2000 estimate
22. 的股价是由CFROI和增长决定的
4.2
2.2
0.2Real Asset
Growth Rate
(%)CFROI (%)
15.74
17.11
17.81
4.2
30.70
29.83
28.62
8.2
46.52
43.23
40.06
12.2Sinopec equity value (fiscal 2000)Base
CaseWhat is it worth if we improve?Note: Growth only improves value if CFROI improves to “positive spread”
23. 如 何 在 一 体 企 业 中 实 施 财 务 分 析 系 统
24. CEO/BoardBusiness
UnitsOperationsHow do I influence
Share Price?What is the best way
to allocate my capital?How do I improve
execution?Determine where value is being created/destroyedAllocate capital like a portfolio managerImplement a consistent & planning process linked to KPI’s and comp.Communicate to the market in a language they respond toFund ManagersShareholdersHow do I maximize
shareholder returns?Realize maximum value
for shareholders - TSR股价和运营的联接Link to KPIs
25. 各种价值指标的波动直接影响股价Value
SinopecCFROI
1.1%Asset Life
20 yearsAsset Turns
0.36Gross Plant
Asset Turns
0.44Net Cash
FlowAsset Growth
0.46%Fade Rate
10%/yearSize
Differential
-.72Leverage
Differential
+.57Gross
Cash Flow
2.394Adjusted
Gross Assets
48,002Non-Dep.
Assets
6,666Operating
Margin
16.2% Sales Growth
-??%COGS as a %
of Sales
78.1%SG&A as a %
of Sales
5.6%Inventory Turns
3.98A/R Turns
9.11CFROI
Variability
HighPloughback
Low to AverageCountry
Discount
Rate
6.5%1+ WACC=Unit VolumePrice RealisationLink to KPIs
26. Value Drivers provide the direction and KPIs provide the feedback.
A multi-tier system of measures is optimal, with the most accurate (and usually complicated) used by the finance department. From there on, simplification and controllability of KPIs is critical as they are driven broadly and deeply throughout the organisationRevenue GrowthOperating Margins/
ExpensesWorking CapitalAsset Productivity Stimulate Sales
Economic Devel Activities
Expand service territory Manage Cost
Fuel usage
Wage Rates Manage Cash
Billing/Collection Cycle
Fuel and Stock Investment Return on Capital
Asset Availability
Asset UtilisationCash FlowInvestment财务回报价值驱动KPIs% Rev New Products
% Rev New MarketsAverage heat rate
% Cost ReductionInventory Turns
Receivable Turns Equivalent Availability
Capacity Factor方向反馈战略我们该观注什么?我们如何去做?如何知道我们做得对?KPI被用于监督运作,反馈于目标设立什么是目标?Link to KPIs
27. XXXPECChemicalsMarketingRefiningUpstreamStrategy focused on competitive position and new products
Cost control, capacity utilization, new product development and product line managementStrategy focused on competitive position
Pricing, regional shifts and format economics are key drivers
Many small bets
Value driven by customer strategy, store economics and growthStrategy focused on flexibility versus efficiency
Locked into LP Mindset?
Find “out of box” options
Cost control and throughput are key short-term value drivers
Strategy focused on investment options
Field versus new geography investment and exploration costs versus success rate are key drivers
Many bets
Value driven by price investment strategy and operating effectivenessProduct line TSR,
Plant CFROIBU TSR &
Station CFROIProject IRR and refinery CFROIBU TSR & project IRRMetrics implemented按不同的事业部特性确定价值衡量指标Link to KPIs
28. % Gross InvestmentCFROI102030405060708090100-5051020GasExploration6.0ChemicalsRefining and
MarketingCost of Capital15各类投资项目的审核从划分事业部起始Growth ProjectsCFROI Improvement ProjectsCFROI Improvement Projects: Asset management
29. % of Gross Investment%Avg
CFROI in Plan102030405060708090100-505101520253035Chemical 1ExplorationGas 1Chemical 2Gas 2Gas 3MarketingRefining6.0Cost of CapitalChemical 3Chemical 4而事业部进一步按业务类型细化
30. 石油开采事业部市场零售炼油举例:细分后的不同结果Link to Strategy
31. Cleaning Supplies
Household Products
Chemical Additives
Fertilizers
Specialty Plastics产品市场零售工业商业政府直销Major Market
Minor Market
No current market举例(续):按销售渠道进一步细化市场零售事业部Link to Strategy
33. 102030405060708090100-10-5051015202530商业直销零售工业政府CFROI %% Gross Investment
WACCConsolidated CFROI渠道获利率分析揭示了渠道的强弱Link to Strategy
34. Sample Stores CFROISiteKeep?Keep FixCloseStrongWeakWeakStrongStores were grouped
for next stepsCost of Capital
6.0%Cons. CFROI
17.0%-5051015202530Management而零售渠道的进一步细分可揭示各零售点的强弱Link to Strategy
35. Price/
OrderOrder Size01234560102030405060708090100Problem orders而工业渠道注重于挖掘扩展能使之盈利的顾客Link to Strategy
36. Commercial
Direct Sales
Retail
Industrial
GovernmentCustomer GroupGood business, but limited growth
Generally ignored, profitable but unexciting
Well managed
Value mature
Thought to be profitable
Good relationships with customers
Problem area
Necessary evilPrior View10% increase in growth doubles value
“Hidden jewel” - re-addressed marketing strategy
Results below peers in region
Throughput identified as key value driver
Site acquisition model re-done
Asset intensity the key
Focus on raising CFROI
Significant problem areaPost VBM ViewMaintain
Aggressive growth plans
Site improvement program
New store format
Evaluate accounts individually
Focus on valuable customers
Focus on improving CFROI
Expand into other products
Possible exitNext Steps分析的结果引起显著的战略变化Link to Strategy
41. 驱动预算三个主要方面Provides a financial profile of the business for communication and analysis
Non-financial managers brought into value equation
Summary measures broken down into parts for greater focus
Graphically displays a comparison of performance standards
Actual versus budget
Current versus historic
Sinopec performance versus “best practice”
Relationships can be used for “what if?” analysis:
10% Improvement in:Results in CFROI Change of:Revenue1.7%Cost of Goods Sold2.1%Operating Costs4.4%Overhead Costs1.1%
42. AFA Financial InvestmentAeltus Investment Mgmt., Inc.Alex Brown CapitalAllied Investment AdvisorsAlliance Capital Mgmt. Corp.American CenturyAmerican Century InvestmentAtlantic Capital Mgmt.Atlas Capital, L.P.Arden Group, Inc., TheAuchincloss & Lawrence, Inc.BP America, Inc.BTR Capital Management, Inc.Bahl & Gaynor Investment CounselBank of AmericaBay Isle FinancialBoys, Arnold & CompanyCambiar Investment Inc.Canyon Partners Inc.Capital Research Co.Capital TechnologyCastleRock PartnersChase Investment Counsel Corp.CitibankClifford AssociatesColumbia Management Co.Composite Research & ManagementCompu-Val InvestmentsCrabbe Huson Group, Inc.Cramblit & Carney, Inc.Creekside Investment ManagementCrestwood Asset ManagementDavis Selected Advisors, L.P.Davis Skaggs Investment Mgmt.Dean Witter Intercapital Inc.Delaware Investment Advisors, Inc.Eagle Global AdvisorsEaton CorporationEdward Jones & Co.Enright Financial ConsultantsEquinox Capital ManagementEveans, Bash, Magrino & Klein, Inc.Farmers Insurance Group of CompaniesFirst National Bank, SW OhioFleming Capital ManagementFrontier Investment Management Co.Frost National BankGMG/Seneca Capital ManagementGEM Land CompanyGeneral Accident Insurance Co.General Motors Inv. Mgmt. Corp.GlobeFlex CapitalGoefen & Glossberg, Inc.Greenleaf Capital Management Gries Financial Corp.Guardian, TheHGK Asset Management, Inc.Hotchkis & WileyHoward Hughes Medical InstituteHughes Investment Management Co.Hutchens Investment ManagementInvestment Advisors, Inc.Investment Counselors, Inc.JanusJohnson Investment Counsel, Inc.Jurika & Voyles, Inc., Investment Mgmt.KPM Investment Management, Inc.Kalmar Investments, Inc.Kanawha Capital ManagementKempner Capital Management, Inc.Kennedy Capital ManagementKunath Karren Rinne & Atkin, Inc.Legacy Capital ManagementLegg Mason Capital Mgmt., Inc.Leonard Management GroupLockheed Martin CorpLogan Capital Management, Inc.Luther King Capital Mgmt.Lutheran Church, TheMcMurrey Investment Advisors, Inc.Mercantile TrustMeridian Investment CompanyMerrill Lynch Asset ManagementMesirow FinancialMississippi Valley AdvisorsMontag ManagementNational City BankNike Securities L.P.Noroian Capital ManagementNorwest Capital AdvisorsNWQ Investment Management Co.Oppenheimer CapitalOppenheimerFunds, Inc.Oppenheimer ManagementPacific Alliance CapitalParnassus Fund, ThePeregrine Capital ManagementPhilip V. Swan AssociatesPioneering Management Corp.Plaza Investment Managers, Inc.Prudential Mutual Fund InvestmentPSA FinancialPutnam Companies, Inc.RCM Capital Management, LLCRM Investment Management, Inc.Richard Blum & AssociatesRoberts, Glore & Co.Robertson Stephens & Co.Roger H. Jenswold & Co., Inc.Roulston & Company, Inc.Salomon Brothers Asset ManagementSand Hill Advisors, Inc.Schneider CapitalSCI Capital ManagementScholtz & CompanySecurities Management & ResearchSeligman, J.W. & Co., Inc.Sentinel Trust Co.SMC Capital ManagementSheffield Investment ManagementShields/AllianceSignet Asset ManagementSmith Barney Investment AdvisorsSoros Fund ManagementSovereign Advisors, Inc.Spears Benzak Salomon & FarrellSpero Smith Investment Advisers, Inc.Stafford Trading Standard Pacific Capital LLCStar BankStarbuck, Tisdale & AssociatesState of New JerseyState Street ResearchStein Row & FarnhamSterling Ltd.Stonebridge Capital Management Inc.Stoneleigh Investment CounselingStrong Capital Management, Inc. Sturdivant & Company, Inc.Summit Investment ManagementSun Life of CanadaTiger Asset ManagementT. Rowe PriceTexas Commerce BankTRUSCO Capital ManagementTrust Company of the WestUSAA Investment Management Co.VA Retirement SystemW.D. Hutchinson & AssociatesWashington Investment AdvisorsWeiss, Peck & Greer InvestmentsWellington Management CompanyWoodside Asset ManagementFidelity InvestmentsInvesco Capital Management.在美国使用CFROI的财务机构
43. Aeltus Investment Management, Inc.
AMP Investments Australia
American Express Asset Management Intl
AXA – Sun Life Invest Management Service*
BOE Asset Management
BFG Bank AG
Bankers Trust – Japan
Baring International
British Aerospace Pension Investment
CIS – Co-operative Insurance Society
CS Asset Management
Capital Group Companies, Inc.
Citibank Global Asset Management
DEKA – Deutsche Kapitalanlagegesellschaft
Dresdner RCM Capital Management
Dresdner RCM Global Investors Asia, Ltd.
Deutsche Morgan Grenfel Asset Management
Equitilink
Fidelity Investment Services
First State Fund Managers Ltd., Australia
Fleming Investment Management
Gartmore Investment Management*
GIC – Government of Singapore Investment
GIM General Investment Management B.V.
GlobeFlex Capital
HSBC Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd.
HSBC Asset Management Japan, KK
Hypovereinsbank
IBJ – Industrial Bank of Japan
INVESCO Asset Management
Invesco GT Asset Management PLC
IOOF Funds Management Janus
Jardine Fleming Investment
Julius Baer Asset Management
Labouchere & Co. Private Banking
Liberty Asset Management Limited
Lingohr & Partner Asset Management
M & G Group
Marathon Asset Management
Meiji Mutual Life Insurance Merrill Lynch
Mercury Asset Management*
Merrill Lynch Mercury Asset Mgmt. Japan
Morgan Grenfell Asset Management*
NPI
National Australia Asset Management
Newton Investment Management
Norwich Investment Management, Ltd.
Philips Pensioenfond
Prudential Life Insurance Company, Ltd.*
Prudential Portfolio Managers, Ltd.
Putnam Companies, Inc.
Robertson, Stephens & Company
Rowe, Price-Fleming International Inc.
Royal Bank Investment Management
Royal Sun Alliance*
Saloman Brothers Asset Management
Scottish Mutual
Scottish Widows
Shell Pension Fund
Shell Trust (Bermuda) Limited
Sloane Robinson
Societe Generale Asset Management
Soros Fund Management
Standard Life Stanhope Pension Trust*
State Street Global Advisors
Teachers Investment Board of Ontario
Threadneedle Investment Managers Ltd.
UOB Asset Management Ltd.
Value Management & Research Gmbh
Vontobel Asset Management*Among top ten in UK
在美国以外使用CFROI的财务机构