6. Slide *1990s:
Shareholder value
所有者价值
Cost reduction
降低成本
Re-focusing
重新专注业务
Outsourcing
外包
Re-engineering
重组
Delayering
减少层次2000+
New sources of compet-
itive advantage
新的竞争优势
More reconciliation
between: Short-long term effectiveness
短期效益与长期利益的平衡
Cost efficiency and
innovation
成本效益性;创新
Global integration and
local responsive
全球整合并且地区响应Top management thinking
7. Slide *Horizontal integration 横向一体化
occurs when a business merges with or acquires another business
Vertical integration
Ownership and control over successive stages of the value chain for its product.供应链的兴起
13. Slide *What is Supply ChainProfitability
供应链的基本目标是:实现最大价值增值,或者说最大的供应链获利能力。
Source of Revenue: only one收入来源
Source of Cost: flows of information, product, funds generate costs within the chain to maximize total profitability.成本来源
由此可以得出,供应链管理的定义或基本内容。
14. Slide *Processes and flows
15. Slide *Processes and flowsProcess view of a supply chain
Cycle View循环周期划分
Customer order cycle完成周期
Replenishment cycle
Manufacturing cycle
Procurement cycle
Pull/Push view of process以推拉分
Depending on the timing of the execution relative to customer demand.
The push/pull boundary in a supply chain se-parates push processes from pull processes.
16. Slide *Supply Chain DecisionsDesign/Strategy
Location, capacity of Facilities
Products at various locations
Modes of transportation
Type of information
Planning
Location with markets.
Buildup of inventory
Replenish & inventory policies
Marketing promotions
Operation decisions regarding
Individual customer order
-implementation in best possible mannerConfiguration
-constraints
Parameters
-limits
Operations
-performance
17. Slide *Execute Competitive StrategyStrategic Fit means both the competitive and supply chain strategies have the same goal.
战略匹配
Each functional strategy must support other functional strategies and help reach competitive strategy goal.
18. Slide *Supply Chain Management
19. Slide *
20. Slide *Strategic FitStep 1: Understanding the Customer (demand).
Quantity of the product needed in each lot
Response time that customers are willing to tolerate
Variety of products needed
Service level required: availability
Price of the product
Desired rate of innovation in the product
… …
Key measure capturing variation for all the attributes:
Implied Demand Uncertainty隐含的不确定因素
– resulting uncertainty given the portion of demand that the chain must handle and the attributes the customer desires.
21. Slide *Strategic Fit
22. Slide *Strategic FitUnderstand customer by mapping their demand on the implied demand uncertainty spectrum.
了解客户:隐含的不确定因素程度如何?
23. Step 2: Understanding the Supply Chain
Mapping the Chain on the responsiveness spectrum
了解供应链:反应导向与效率导向的界线成本导向
27. Slide *Supply Chain Drivers and ObstaclesDrivers of Supply Chain Performance
28. Slide *Little’s Law:
Inventory I = RT Throughput & process Flow Time
Components of Information decision
Push vs Pull:
push requires elaborate MRP system to roll MPS back and creating schedules for suppliers with details. Pull requires in-formation on actual demand transmitted quickly throughout chain
Coordination and information sharing
Forecasting and Aggregate Planning
How to use the aggregate planning both at manager’s stage in the chain and throughout the whole chain
Enabling technologies Drivers of Supply Chain
30. Slide *Obstacles to Strategic FitIncreasing variety of Products
Rampant product proliferation
Mass Customization; One-of-a-kind
Decreasing product life cycles
Increasingly demanding customers
Fragmentation of supply chain ownership
Globalization
Coordination
Competition
Difficulty executing strategy
31. Slide *Aggregate Planning in Supply Chain决定总计划问题,而非SKU的量的问题。
Production Rate
Workforce
Overtime
Machine capacity level
Subcontracting
Backlog
Inventory on hand
Trade-offs:
Capacity (regular time, overtime, subcontracted)
Inventory
Backlog/lost salesWhich industries need it ?
32. Slide *Manage Predictable VariabilityManage supply using trade-offs
M. demand: short-term discounts/promotions
将supply和demand分开管理、决定,使供应链协调显著
困难,并降低了获利能力。
四个因素影响着Trade promotion
Impact of the promotion on demand
Market growth
Stealing share
Forward buying
Product margins
Cost of holding inventory
Cost of changing capacity
结论:避免suboptimal profits,协调营销与运营。
33. Slide *Manage InventoryAverage material flow time
stock/demand= n (week,month,year…)
An increase in demand by a factor k, optimal order quantity increases by k, and material flow time decreases by k.
需求的增长K倍,会使flow time降低 K倍数。
Short-Term Discounts: Trade promotion
Induce Retailers to增加、刺激销售。
Shift inventory to retailer or customer
Defend a brand against competition.
Retailer:
Pass through some or all to customer
Pass through none, 但增大订购量获取短期折扣。
34. Slide *Manage Inventory
35. Slide *Manage InventoryForward buy = Qd- Qe案例分析。
结论:
Retailers pass a small fraction of discount to customers; Retailers increase purchase lot size or forward buy.
This leads to chain inventory increase without a significant increase in customer demand:
7.5% vs 500% increaseQd=order during promotion
d=discount
h=hurdle rate
C=cost of product
R=demand
Qe=economic order
37. Slide *Manage Safety-aggregation对相关系数为零的需求进行集中、综合计划,安全库存会降低而不会影响产品可得性。
平方根规则:互不相关的库存位置数量降低了 K倍,则所需安全库存数量降低 K倍。
良好的信息系统形成虚拟集中计划。
偏差:平均高比值的客户需求,集中计划有较大效益;反之,效益较小。
意识并利用到到customer-driven two-way sub-stitution能降低安全库存;manufacturer-driven one-way substitution能提高获利能力。
使用共通部件。
延迟。Postponement is the ability to delay product differentiation or customization until closer to the time the product is sold.
39. Slide *Level of Product Availability季节性一次性定单:
CSL: service level
c: cost of product
s: salvage value
p: selling price
Co Cost of overstock 余货成本
Cu Cost of understock 缺货成本
在最优服务水平下,求得收入期望。(1-CSL)(p-c)=CSL(c-s)
CSL=(p-c)/(p-s)
=Cu/(Cu+Co)
=1/[1+(Co/Cu)]
40. Slide *Level of Product Availability持续补充项目的定货:
Q: lot size
S: fixed order cost
R: demand per unit time
R : R期间标准差
ss safety=ROP-RL
C: unit cost
h: hurdle rate
H=C*h库存持有成本Demand during stockout
is backlogged
CSL= 1-Demand in stockout
is lost
CSL= 1-
41. Slide *Level of Product Availability零售商利扬某季节性商品,销售记录为常态分布:mean=350而 =100。商品进货单价c=100元,零售价p=250元。没卖出去的商品处理收入85元,处理成本5元。利扬最优购买量是多少?Salvage Value s=85-5=80元
Cu缺货成本=250-100=150
Co=100-80=20
最优CSL= Cu/(Cu+Co)=0.88
Qe=NormInv(CSL, ,)=468
43. Slide *Level of Product Availability零售商利扬独家经营一新的季节性专利商品。专利制造商成本为10元,卖给利扬c=100元。利扬销售价为p=200元,残值为0。该价位销售常态分布mean=1000而 =300。求最优CSL为多少?Salvage Value s=0元
Cu缺货成本=200-100=100
Co=100-0=100
最优CSL= Cu/(Cu+Co)=0.5
Qe=NormInv(CSL, ,)=1,000Double Marginalization: supply chain margin of a sum is divided between chain stages.